[ES] 07/01/2022

E-mini S&P 500- 2 key elements for a successful entry!!

Watching supply and demand is easier than you think, in this example I am going to explain that you only need to know at least two pieces of information to make a high probability entry into the market.

The two main data you need to know is the delta value of the momentum (upward movement +614) and the delta value of the retracement (downward movement -64), these two data are key to identify imbalances in the market and advantages that we can take advantage of using OTM indicators, here I explain in detail this entry:

1. Delta value of the ascending wave: in this example it is +614.

2. MicroDelta indicator: this confirms a large number of aggressive buyers.

3. Increasing positive cumulative delta: supports the hypothesis of buying pressure in the movement.

4. No supply in MicroDelta: in this case the amount of sales present in the pullback (drying up) is minimal.

5. Delta value of the downward wave: it is -64, compared to +614 is 10% of the upward wave, this shows us a great imbalance in favor of the upward movement.

5. Trading with supply and demand data facilitates decision making and increases the probability of success of your entries. Organize your trading with the OTM Indicators Pack.

[ES] 30/11/2021

E-mini S&P [EN] Five star entry !!

Price allows us to track supply and demand patterns that we can easily identify, one of them is this five star entry, why is it a high probability pattern, let's see:

1. There is a steady increase in buying, leaving in turn a low aggressiveness on the selling side.

2. The positive cumulative delta is a great sign of buying pressure and is increasing.

3. No response from selling during the pullback wave is a clear sign that buying is in control of the move.

4. The retracement wave has a positive delta (+37), this represents an imbalance in favor of buyers even in a bearish retracement move, this is a very strong sign of aggressive buying, the delta divergence box is this cherry on top of the cake that we always want to have in our entries.

5. Two buy signals that confirm all other statements (demand is in control).

[ES-CL] 10-12/11/2021

$727 dollars using the same pattern in one week.

The great benefit of using OTM is to recognize high probability patterns with great ease, in these three charts I want to show you the executions taken on 10,11 and 12 November 2021, using the same pattern, here I explain them:

1. Momentum (yellow):This is the first requirement of this pattern, we must have a momentum in favour of the movement in which we are going to take, if we are going to buy we must have delta momentum in favour of buyers (example on the left of the Crude Oil), and if we are going to sell, we must have a momentum in favour of sellers (the other two examples).

2. Decrease (blue): If we wish to have a high probability on the trade, we must ensure that the delta retracement volume is very low compared to the momentum volume, this is commonly known as "volume drying".

3. Signal (red): OTM Trading, gives us different signals, these appear when some anomaly occurs and we have some advantage in our favour, the signal that appears in these three executions is the signal of effort No result, which indicates that there is a lot of volume but the movement slows down.

4. Accumulated Delta (purple): The accumulated delta is the confirmation that we have the pressure in favour of the movement in which we are going to take the operation.

The key is to have imbalances on one side, this guarantees us to have greater probability in our operations, if you are interested in obtain the OTM tools and have any questions please do not hesitate to contact us in the contact form or by clicking here.

[ES] 03/11/2021

E-mini S&P 500 [ES] FOMC News Analysis

On news we usually don't trade, this is very accurate, however a few minutes after the FOMC pronounces on interest rates, we can get valuable information about the supply and demand behaviour:

1. Right at the FOMC reports, the delta volume of buying increases massively, there we start to get information, and the first step is to wait for the pullback with some anomaly, it can be decrease in supply volume or effort not result.

2. The price makes precisely a deep retracement with a signal of effort not result, there we can join in that upward movement.

3. If we have missed that first movement we get a new confirmation with a huge volume of buying with a consistent result in the price, and subsequently makes a couple of pullbacks with very little supply.

4. The positive accumulated delta confirms the buying pressure.

5. There is very little supply on these pullbacks, this is a strong sign of trend continuation.

[ES] 26/10/2021

E-mini S&P 500 [ES] Reversal on all-time highs

Trading on historical highs is not easy, however with OTM we can easily observe supply/demand imbalance patterns, like this example:

1. While the price is moving sideways we observe that one of its bullish waves has a negative delta value of -66, this shows us the exhaustion of buying and the presence of selling.

2. The negative cumulative delta allows us to see the consistency of the selling pressure as the price continues to move sideways.

3. As the price falls, the negative delta grows each time with no buying response.

4. At this small retracement we have a sell signal which confirms that the sellers have the upper hand.

5. The divergence at -6 confirms once again the lack of buying interest in the retracement.

This entry with more than 5 confirmations allows us to obtain a smooth bearish movement obtaining a trade with a risk/reward ratio of 1:2.

[ES] 10/10/2021

E-mini S&P 500 [ES] Spartan divergence!

This is one of the highest probability entries we can get using OTM. We must always understand the story behind the entry, here we go with the story of this entry:

We have a bearish attempt by the price around 8:35am (US open) however it fails in that direction, then a big demand (#1) appears to break the overnight session high (ONH), in OTM we always recommend waiting for the pullback to get a better placement of the entries.

In that pullback we observe that we have a large decrease in supply, this translates into low interest to trade low prices (#3), in the same way the positive cumulative delta (#2) is increasing.

As price makes the pullback we have a large Spartan divergence (#4) of +301 positive delta, this is a great sign of buyers during the pullback!!!, this forms a high probability pattern.

If we are true to the price action, a pennant pattern can be seen in the retracement wave, after this is broken (blue arrow), we can make the entry.

The exit depends on you, but in this case we have the maximum level of the week that we can take as a reference, obtaining a risk benefit ratio greater than 1:3.

[MES] 06/10/2021

E-mini S&P 500 micro [MES] High volatility? fortunately there are Microfutures!

The VIX volatility index tells us how big the market movements can be, that's why on this day we trade microfutures, I want to show you what factors I took into account to take this trade with a risk benefit ratio of 1 to 1.7.

#1: A nice price momentum accompanied with a large delta volume of buyers. The relationship of the movement and the delta is key, if the candlesticks do not have a fluid movement, we can present problems and may not trigger a good movement, today had total harmony.

#2: The delta histogram allows us to see that the buying pressure has been growing steadily, basically it shows us the commitment of buyers.

#3: If we wait for the pullback it is best to observe a "drying up" or decrease in volume, we must make sure that the supply does not want to push hard on the pullback, there we differentiate a pullback from a turn.

#4: On the pullback, we have a buy signal, which shows us that the pullback has a very low delta, this is a further confirmation.

Finally the price continues its upward path giving us a profit of 27 ticks per contract.

[CL] 12/07/2021

CRUDE OIL FUTURES [CL] When you see this, don't pass it up!

The 74.10 level is a level with a high probability of being tested, 73% of the times it is tested in the American session, so what should we look for?

We must look for confirmations in the OTM indicators that allow us to identify greater presence of purchases than sales, likewise the price structure is bullish, you know the basics, higher lows and higher highs, now let's go with what we had in this movement with OTM.

The buy boxes of the Delta Micro indicator had been growing steadily (#1), as well as the positive cumulative delta (#2), these two confirmations show us that there is more buying than selling.

The execution of the entry we can do it after the pullback and wait for some of the OTM signals, in this case we have 3 signals, Exhaustion of sales, effort not result and delta divergence box (+253), this is a very strong pattern for purchases, therefore it is a very high probability entry, up to the price level of 74.10 we would get 14 ticks equivalent 140 dollars in less than 3 minutes, quite easy to identify the direction that the price will take right?

[ES] 15/04/2021

E-mini S&P 500 [ES] Read ahead

On the bar chart, we cannot see that the buying is preparing its transactions to make a breakout of the 4149 level. However with OTM we can get information and anticipate the breakout.

We observe little buying or selling intention in the Delta histogram, at the same time we see that the price advances laterally, the selling pressure decreases. In (#3) we can detect the aggressive institutional buying initiative, this leaves a pullback with double buy signal (#4), at this point we can anticipate the breakout, if we want to be more conservative we can enter after the price leaves the area, there we will have more than 4 confirmations and a lot of security in the purchase operation.

[CL] 15/04/2021

CRUDE OIL FUTURES [CL] Very easy, buyers and not sellers

The easiest pattern to identify is to observe large purchases and few sales, a lot of green color and little red color, here I explain it in detail. First, in the Delta Cumulative (#1) we have a transition from sales to purchases, second, we observe a constant buying initiative much higher than sales (#2), third, for further confirmation we see a buying pullback (#3), along with a buy signal (#4).

[CL] 15/04/2021

CRUDE OIL FUTURES [CL] Exhaustion and new opportunity

When the price rises too much and we observe exhaustion in the buying strength we may have the opportunity to sell. In this case we have a strong previous upward movement that gradually loses strength with the buying pressure, now it goes from positive to negative (#1), the loss of bullish strength is observed in the sell signals (#3) and the triple signal in the retracement (#4), this indicates that purchases have withdrawn. The Delta Micro histogram (#2), also shows a steady growth of selling delta volume (red color), this increases the probability of a price reversal from bullish to bearish.

[CL] 15/04/2021

CRUDE OIL FUTURES [CL] Where are the sellers?

In the Delta Micro histogram (#2), there is a large expansion of positive delta (green boxes), constantly and its counterpart (red boxes), are very small, this is the pattern to confirm that the price has bullish strength, very simple, much bullish strength and little bearish strength, but that's not all.

On the Delta Cumulative (#1) there is a great buying pressure initiative (green), also on the retracement (#3) we have positive delta divergence of +177 which is marked with a green dotted box, this is an indication that the buyers really are very strong, to trust a buy trade we have the effort signal not buy result (#4).

[CL] 12/04/2021

CRUDE OIL FUTURES [CL] Triple buy signal

In the buying retracement (#3) we observe that there is a dotted green box, this box indicates that the retracement of the movement had buying strength, this is a bullish signal, the other two (#4), are signals that indicate; The top one indicates that there is effort and there is no result, there is excessive volume without the price making strong movements, this is good for the price to continue bullish, the second signal (green triangle), means that successively the sales have decreased. Be careful, not only for having these three signals in a retracement we will buy or sell, we can see that we have other confirmations

The increase of the Delta Cumulative (#1) confirms that the price has more buying pressure than selling, likewise the Delta Micro histogram (#2) shows that the buying is growing steadily, completing the whole puzzle we can get a high probability entry in (#3).

[ES] 08/03/2021

E-mini S&P 500 [ES] It's time for the BEARS

The changes of direction in the market are the most complex operations we can do, and this is more difficult when we do not have enough information, here we observe a consolidation zone. While this is happening we can read the supply and demand information. #1. The selling pressure is drying up and is letting the buyers position, #2 There are no attempts with large volume of demand to make the price continue. #3. Sell signal (demand exhaustion), here we have more clues of a possible turn. #4. Another sell signal. #5. Large institutional selling volume that allows us to take a short exit from the transition zone with confidence.

[ES] 05/03/2021

E-mini S&P 500 [ES] Institutional buyers attack

When we have a strong bearish movement we must be attentive to possible transitions in the delta (#1), the histogram of the accumulated delta shows how it goes from negative to positive increasing.

After making a transition the price just needs some buying institutional volume to raise the price (#2). The best thing to do is to wait for the pullback, there we want to get a buying pullback (#3), a buying pullback is marked with a green box, and indicates that we have more buys than sells in the bearish move, this is also called delta divergence.

On the retracement we also have an excess volume signal (#4), this allows us to confirm the presence of buyers pushing the price higher.

[ES] 05/03/2021

E-mini S&P 500 [ES] Huge volume buyer

The Macro market trend is bullish, when this happens it is not easy for the price to retrace, so when we think it will change direction the institutional aggressive buyers (#2) return, this change can be seen reflected in the transition from selling to buying pressure (#1). The supply response to take a position is fundamental, to be sure that buying dominates the move we observe that in the Delta Micro histogram (#3) there is a poor sell response, the final confirmation to get a bullish leg (it does not always move 10 points in favor), we have double signal (#4) of buying.

[NQ] 09/02/2021

E-mini Nasdaq [NQ] Don't shy away from deep pullbacks

When we have deep pullbacks we can believe that the price will change direction as is the case of the pullback marked in #3, where we have a deep pullback movement with a delta of -631 and a volume of 10837, this is significant. However, we observe that the OTM software gives a buy signal due to the effort No result that presents this retracement, it means that there are excessive volumes but the price can not continue in a bearish direction, this anomaly is also known as buying absorption and is favorable for the price to continue bullish.

The pullback and its evaluation are the final step to take a position, however the institutional volume of purchases (#2), confirms this buying initiative in excess, as well as the Delta Cumulative (#1), informs us about the change from selling to buying pressure on the price.

[ES] 09/02/2021

E-mini S&P 500 [ES] Patience pays

Bearish moves are faster than bullish moves, possibly you have missed opportunities by selling, however you can expect this movement pattern that allows you to enter part of that big pullback or a change in price direction.

As in the previous examples the OTM Delta Cumulative (#1) allows us to test the transition from sells to buys. Now we require institutional buying impulses (#2), waiting for pullbacks so as not to anticipate, getting confirmations with lack of sales (#4), and confirmations from OTM algorithms (#5,6).